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14 November 2017, 12:44 | Jan Cross
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"Even though we project carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry to increase 2% in 2017, large uncertainties persist, and growth [rates] between 1% and 3% are distinct possibilities given difficulties in making projections".
The single biggest cause of the rise is an increase in emissions from China, already the world's biggest emitter, which had fallen slightly in recent years.
UEA's Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research director Corinne Le Quéré said in a statement, "With global Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities estimated at 41 billion tonnes for 2017, time is running out on our ability to keep warming well below two degrees Celsius, let alone 1.5 degrees Celsius".
US emissions are expected to decline by.4 percent, compared to a typical decline in the country of about 1.2 percent per year. Those are smaller decreases than the average over the previous decade. In the United States, some of that decline is likely due to a slowdown in the use of natural gas, but some is also due to the fact that coal use is projected to increase for the first time in five years.
The annual report released Monday by the Global Carbon Project provides fuel to environmentalists to argue that the slowdown in emissions growth was more of a fluke than the start of a pattern. 'This is very disappointing'. This year we have seen how climate change can amplify the impacts of hurricanes with more intense rainfall, higher sea levels, and warmer ocean conditions favoring more powerful storms.
After remaining flat for three years, experts had hoped that greenhouse gas emissions had peaked and would soon begin to fall. (GDP to rise 3.6% according to International Monetary Fund figures). Those from all human activities (fossil fuels, industry, and land-use change) will reach around 41bn tonnes, similar to the record high in 2015.
From 2014 to 2016 global Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry grew hardly at all.
China's emissions are projected to grow by 3.5% (0.7% to 5.4%), driven by a rise in coal consumption (GDP up 6.8%).
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Continuing the streak of sad news, atmospheric Carbon dioxide concentration reached 403 parts per million in 2016, and is expected to increase by 2.5 parts per million in 2017.
"To meet Paris we'd need to cut [emissions by] 18 to 20 per cent compared to current levels - which equals a 1.5 to 1.7 per cent reduction per year", Professor Jotzo said.
Furthermore, renewable energy generation across the world has increased at 14 per cent a year over the past five years, albeit it from a very low base, the report noted.
In that context, the Budget report noted that emissions of 101 countries, representing 50% of global emissions, increased in the presence of growing GDP.
They say the growth in 2017 is mainly due to stronger emissions growth in China and other developing countries, and their findings show that the Paris goals could quickly slip out of reach.
All of this might be an unwelcome message for policy makers and delegates at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 23) in Bonn this week.
The GCP is a collaboration between worldwide science organisations to monitor global carbon emissions and their sources in order to help "slow the rate of increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere".
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