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11 October 2017, 12:26 | Terri Saunders
Won't get fooled again: IMF warning shows it's learned from past errors
India has lost its rank as the world's fastest growing major economy in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) tally after it slashed India's growth projection for 2017 by 0.5 percent to 6.7 percent on Tuesday.
"Given the significant policy uncertainty, IMF staff's macroeconomic forecast now uses a baseline assumption of unchanged policies, whereas the April 2017 WEO (World Economic Outlook) built in a fiscal stimulus from anticipated tax cuts", the Fund said in its revisions to its US economic forecasts.
The statement which made available in Nicosia said that GDP growth this year will reach 3.4 percent compared to its original estimate of 2.5 percent and to 2.6 percent in 2018 from an original estimate of 2.3 percent.
Forecasts for euro zone, Japan, China, emerging market Europe and Russian Federation were all revised upwards.
The report projected India to regain the top spot next year with a 7.4 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate.
"Strong government spending and data revisions in India led to an upward revision of 2016 growth to 7.1 per cent (6.8 per cent in April), with upward revisions of about 0.2 percentage point, on average, for 2014 and 2015", it said. Even more pessimistically, the Centre for Economics and Business Research anticipates that the United Kingdom economy will grow by just 1.3 per cent in 2017, representing a substantial downward revision from an earlier forecast of 1.7 per cent.
Releasing the report in Washington, IMF Research Director Maurice Obstfeld said: "The global recovery is continuing, and at a faster pace".
The Fund cautioned that euro zone growth would remain under pressure due to weak productivity, an ageing population and, in some countries, high debt.
The downward revision to U.S. growth over the past six months is because of a "major correction" to the IMF's fiscal policy assumptions, it says. Inflation seems to have peaked in many emerging markets and developing economies, as well.
At the same time, a premature exit by the European Central Bank from its easy monetary-policy stance could derail growth in many European countries.
However, it left the British outlook, which was downgraded in July, unchanged.
The United States also suffered a cut to growth projections this summer, but received an upgrade in the October report that nullified the move.
The Goods and Services Tax (GST) was implemented in India from July 1 this year.
Angola, where Jose Eduardo dos Santos stepped down as president last month after 38 years, is also set for a boost from the oil recovery, rebounding to 1.5 percent growth this year from a 0.7 percent contraction last year.
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