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emfizz.com July 24, 2017


Kuwait: it's premature for OPEC to cap Libya, Nigeria oil output

17 July 2017, 05:03 | Bernard Bryant

Brent WTI End Week Up 5

Brent WTI End Week Up 5

U.S. crude rose more than 5.2% for the week while Brent rose more than 4.7%. Oil and Gas Investor reports in its article Oil Prices On Track For Solid Weekly Gains Following Positive Demand Signals that Royal Dutch Shell Plc (NYSE: RDS.A) declared force majeure on exports of Nigeria's Bonny Light crude oil due to the closure of one of its two export pipelines, boosting both benchmarks. Libyan crude oil production gained 17.5 percent.

Nigeria and Libya have been invited to a joint meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC on July 24 in St Petersburg, Russia. Brent crude rose 63 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $48.37/b by 2:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT) while USA light crude ended the day's session up 59 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $46.08/b, CNBC reported.

Opec and the non-cartel members party to the deal will meet in Russian Federation on July 24 to review the deal's effects. OPEC is hoping higher demand in the second half will get rid of excess inventories.

"Those who wanted confirmation about global oil demand had it" in Chinese import figures, said Tamas Varga, an analyst with PVM Oil Associates. OECD stocks are still 266 million barrels above the five-year average, the IEA said.

This added to an IEA report raising its demand estimate.

The International Energy Agency in a report released Thursday stated that "Higher output from [OPEC] members bound by the production pact knocked compliance to 78 percent in June, the lowest rate during the first six months of the agreement".

Nigeria and Libya are two members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries exempt from a multilateral effort to balance the market with production declines so they can steer oil revenue to national security efforts.

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Combined, Libya and Nigeria have increased output from 2.048 million bpd in April to 2.585 million bpd in June, and a cap would merely hold steady these levels of production, and would still take away from OPEC/NOPEC production quotas that promised to cut production by 1.8 million bpd.

In an effort to eradicate a supply glut, the OPEC is curbing output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) until March 2018, while Russian Federation and other non-OPEC producers are cutting half as much.

The cuts were envisaged for six months and extended for another three.

OPEC said last Wednesday the world would need only 32.2 million bpd of its crude next year, down 60,000 bpd from this year and about 400,000 bpd less than it pumped in June.

Prices responded only minimally to data Wednesday showing that US crude oil inventories dropped last week by the most in 10 months.

And due to the abundant supply, the price of oil now stands at less than US$50 a barrel, around a third of the level 10 years ago.

"The market is having difficulty picking its head up", said Gene McGillian, manager of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.



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