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emfizz.com May 23, 2017


U.S. drillers likely to undermine Russia-OPEC plan to boost crude prices

20 May 2017, 09:18 | Jan Cross

US drillers likely to undermine Russia-OPEC plan to boost crude prices

Byron at Landing Side

UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo said he saw a 60 percent probability of OPEC extending output cuts. Wednesday's report also showed that USA crude imports climbed 577K barrels per day last week, whereas exports advanced 400K barrels per day.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday, however, warned that OPEC's effort to rein in the glut in supply may fail even if the oil group agrees to extend its supply-cut agreement.

Under the current deal OPEC, Russia and other producers agreed to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) for six months from January 1.

Earlier, Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation made a joint statement, saying during the OPEC meeting to be held May 24-25, they will propose the extension of the output cut deal by nine months.

At its meeting, OPEC is expected to renew its decision to reduce production by more than 1 million b/d through 2017.

Opec members Kuwait and Venezuela reiterated their support of extending an agreement to cut crude production, originally created to end in June 2017, for a further nine months until March 2018. Prices gained 41 cents to settle at US$49.07 yesterday, the highest level since April 28.

Domestic crude production recorded an unexpected decline of 0.1% on the week at 9.31 million bpd, breaking the sequence of gains, although output was still 5.8% higher over the year.

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Even a "drastic" downward shift in the market conditions won't lead to a rapid collapse of USA oil production, according to Rystad Energy.

Jefferies bank said it was lowering its oil price forecasts due to a surprisingly strong rise in United States of America production.

A second source said a deeper cut in output was an option depending on estimated growth in supply from non-OPEC producers and US shale oil. "Still, we shall see demand growth of around 1.3 million barrels a day outpace supply growth by at least 500,000 barrels a day". USA light crude rose 71c to $49,37 a barrel.

Kuwait, a Gulf producer usually aligned with the Saudi OPEC view, said on Tuesday it supported the proposal.

Both benchmark prices started the day in negative territory after data from the American Petroleum Institute estimated that USA crude stocks had risen by 882,000 barrels.

WTI Crude rose around 0.7% on Thursday, after earlier in the day the price of oil was down as investors' enthusiasm waned over yesterday's Energy Information Administration (EIA) draw.

Morgan Stanley says that the doubling of the rig count in the USA demonstrates the "strongest recovery in the last 30 years".



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