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emfizz.com April 30, 2017


Strong start to 2017 bodes well for Canada, International Monetary Fund says

20 April 2017, 09:33 | Jan Cross

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The fund has been predicting a pick-up in global growth for some time, but Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF's chief economist, said this time it appeared as though it would "finally come to pass".

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global oil prices to keep at around $55 per barrel in 2017-2018, according to the latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.

It was the first upward revision in two years to the growth forecast, which has been consistently disappointing.

The IMF today trimmed India's annual growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 7.2 per cent for 2017, citing the impact of demonetisation.

Gasper said globalisation and technological change have been major drivers of economic growth and cross country convergence.

"Brazil's macroeconomic prospects hinge on the implementation of ambitious structural economic and fiscal reforms", the International Monetary Fund said in the report.

The warnings follow events like the Brexit vote and the United States election of President Donald Trump, which have promoted more domestically-focused policies on business and trade.

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"Fiscal policy is correctly focused on more inclusive growth by increasing social and infrastructure expenditure, financed with additional borrowing and higher revenue".

The IMF has long advocated for growth-friendly fiscal stimulus in countries that require an boost but has also warned robust economies to be fiscally prudent during good times. It left its forecast for next year at 3.6 per cent.

Meanwhile, the IMF held its 2017 US growth forecast steady at 2.3 percent, which still represents a substantial jump from 1.6 percent growth in 2016, partly due to expectations that President Donald Trump will cut taxes and increase government spending.The IMF also revised Britain's growth forecast to 2.0 percent for 2017, up a half percentage point from January.

Britain's economy is then expected to slow to 1.5% in 2018 - though that figure was revised up from January's projections for 1.4% growth.

The IMF expected the advanced economies to grow by 2 percent this year, 0.1 percentage point higher than its forecast in January. At least on the surface, the country has avoided a hard landing in economic growth, defused any form of financial or debt crisis, sorted out trade rifts with Donald Trump and put itself back as a key player contributing to world economic growth.

"Risks remain skewed to the downside, however, especially over the medium term, with pervasive uncertainty surrounding policies", said the report. "Such risk taking is associated with intermittent large destabilising swings in the financial system over the past few decades".

"Global economic activity is picking up speed, but the potential for disappointments remains high, and momentum is unlikely to be sustained in the absence of efforts by policymakers to implement the right set of policies and avoid missteps", the report said.



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